I was wrong. I admit it.
Several weeks ago, I predicted that as long as the campaign remained uneventful and turnout remained low, that Gary Mar would be Alberta’s next premier.
Well, turnout remained ridiculously low. Only 78,176 people were even willing to admit they are Progressive Conservatives, down by 46 per cent from 2006.
And yet the Mar campaign still wasn’t able to gets its candidate elected.
If you are a moderately successful assistant district attorney somewhere planning to become PC leader someday, there are lessons to be learned from this process. Here are a few:
• Rule No. 1: Try to avoid becoming too popular.
Seriously. The most popular kid in the class can’t be elected leader of the PC party. It’s too easy to become jealous of the all-star jock or homecoming queen. Instead, aim for moderate popularity. Try to become the smart girl who does other kids’ homework. Yes, you will be used by your classmates, but at least they will owe you one later.
How much popularity is the right amount? Aim for being the second place choice of the third most popular candidate’s voters. That key demographic has elected the last three PC party leaders, and unless the system is changed, it will also elect the next 50.
It’s a dumb way to elect the most powerful politician representing the strongest part of the economy in North America. But that’s the way PCs do things.
At the leadership vote reception, volunteers were handing out “unity T-shirts,” featuring a PC party logo meant to reinforce to members that they are all members of the same team. Instead, they should have given out T-shirts that read, “PC party members do it… stupidly, but consistently.”
• Rule No. 2: Don’t let Ted Morton endorse you.
If he does, you will lose. If you think he might endorse you, take a page from any high school football coach’s playbook and decline the penalty.
Seriously, Ted Morton is damaged goods. The author of the much maligned and dangerous land stewardship act can only serve to hurt the PC party in the future. He barely even won his own riding in the first leadership ballot. Then he endorsed Mar, and watched his riding back Alison Redford to the tune of 584-398. Redford’s first official duty as premier should be to banish Morton from the realm.
Morton is a cranky old man, and might decide to hold on. I don’t blame him. As a cabinet minister he had a massive salary and numerous perks. Besides, he can’t go back to being a political science professor – his students would laugh at him.
If Morton refuses to go, Premier Redford should put dead fish under the floor mats of his car, backbench him all the way to the nosebleed seats at Rexall Place and hire a local priest to perform an exorcism at his Legislature office. He is Ted Morton, so it might take a while for him to get the hint.
• Rule No. 3: Don’t go West
Voter turnout was bad in the 2011 PC leadership election, down to 78,000 from 144,000 in 2006. But the riding of West Yellowhead takes the cake. The home of liberal-voting Jasper, not to mention thousands of unemployed forestry and mining workers in Hinton, West Yellowhead contributed 277 votes – in total. That’s 0.0035 per cent of votes cast. Khloe Kardashian uses a larger percentage of her brain.
If you’re future leadership candidate, you also may want to avoid spending too much time in Fort McMurray (290 votes), Calgary-Fort (299 votes), Edmonton-Calder (355) Medicine Hat (367) or Red Deer North (367).
So where should you campaign? From what we’ve seen this election, it looks like Alberta Teachers’ Association conventions are filled with prospective new members. You know, as long as you promise them lots of money. And less work. But mostly more money.
There you have it, a sure-fire campaign plan to become the next leader of the PC party: Don’t become popular, do suck up to unionized government workers and above all else, don’t hang out with Ted Morton.
Hey, it worked for Premier Redford.
